The 2015 NL MVP Goes To…

In mid-July, if I was told that the New York Mets would be the odds-on favorite to win the National League East, I would have laughed in your face. Yet here were are in early September and the Amazin’s hold a sizable lead in their division. I can’t say I saw it coming in March, but it was believable in August.

Why? Sandy Alderson. That’s why.

Actually, the moves that the oft-maligned General Manager strung together in the weeks leading up to the Trade Deadline that started the chain reaction which led to the Mets sitting pretty. Acquiring Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe in a single move helped out the offense a tad, and getting Tyler Clippard for a mid-level prospect bolstered the bullpen. Even those transactions pale in comparison to perhaps the best deadline deal in recent baseball memory. Getting Yoenis Cespedes for the final 2+ months of this season, now, is way more important and awe-inspiring than the Mets brass could have imagined.

In fact, Cespedes is having an MVP-caliber stint with the Mets. Not only that, he could garner some votes if the Mets run away with the NL East. What’s more, he should finish in front of the probable winner, Bryce Harper.

9/1/15 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at Citi Field - New York Mets center fielder Yoenis Cespedes #52 hitting a 2-run homer in the 5th inning.

9/1/15 – Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at Citi Field – New York Mets center fielder Yoenis Cespedes #52 hitting a 2-run homer in the 5th inning. Photo: Charles Wenzelberg

This all, of course, depends on the interpreted definition of the Most Valuable Player award. If you are of the school of thought that the honor should be given to the best player on the best team, then it shouldn’t be either of these guys. If that’s the case, it should probably go to Andrew McCutchen, who is hitting .301 with 21 homers for a Pirates team that holds the second-best record in the league. Maybe you think it should go to the player with the best overall stat line. Then it should go to Paul Goldschmidt, with a .318 average, 27 homers, 97 RBI and 101 walks, or Nolan Arenado, who sports a .286 average but leads the NL with 37 homers and 107 RBI.

In my opinion, the MVP should go to the player who has had the most impact on a contending team, combined with the ability to come up clutch. This is where the Cespedes vs. Harper debate begins. In his short 35-game stint with the Mets, Yoenis Cespedes has hit .307 with 13 homers and 34 RBI to go along with a .660 slugging percentage. Compare that to his .293/18/61 with a .506 slugging percentage in 102 games with Detroit. He’s clearly switched his performance to an extra gear in the midst of a division race.

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These two stars have led their teams in different directions since August 1st. Photos: Chris Humphreys/USA Today Sports, Jonathan Newton/Washington Post

Bryce Harper is having one of the greatest seasons from anyone age 22 or under in baseball history. Right now, his .465 on-base percentage is the second highest for a single season aged 22 or under in history (only Ted Wiliams’ .552 in 1941 is better). His .640 slugging percentage is 3rd highest in the same age range in history. Besides the historical context, he’s hitting .333 with 34 homers and 83 RBI, all of which rank in the top 10 in the league. Harper currently sits atop the NL with 101 runs scored, and all of this comes for a team that has been fighting for a playoff spot all season.

Sounds like a runaway for Harper, right? Not really. If you think about it, the true value in a player comes when the games matter most, such as games against heated rivals fighting for the division lead. Against the Mets this season, Harper has been atrocious, hitting .214 with just one homer and 4 RBI in 56 at-bats, striking out 18 times as well. The frustration has shown in the locker room as well, making some controversial comments about the Mets, essentially saying that they didn’t earn their first-place moniker and that they aren’t ready for the big time. If you can’t produce in the clutch and make constant excuses about your current standing, how much value do you really have?

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Can Bryce Harper be the MVP of a sliding Nationals team? Photo: WTOP

On the flip side, Cespedes has hit .294 in 17 at-bats against Washington including some key hits (like this bases-clearing double to nearly erase a 6-run deficit that you can see here). Not only has he produced in general, but he comes up clutch in the important games. His value is placed in his ability to make hitting contagious as well. Since he was shipped over from Detroit, the Mets offense has averaged over 6 runs per game (tops in the NL), and they broke a club record by hitting over 40 homers in a month as a team. Overall, Cespedes has stayed out of the limelight in the media as well, letting other players like captain David Wright be the spokesman for the team’s recent success, which is a savvy thing for the breakout star to do.

I’m not saying that it’s a lock that “Yo” will beat out Harper for the most prestigious annual award. It’s entirely probable that Harper will still win the award, and Cespedes will finish far back in the polls. However, in order to make sure that the right choice is made to basically be the face of the league for the next year-plus, every facet needs to be considered. Cespedes has been the man for a team that has taken utter control of their division, while Harper’s stats haven’t helped the Nats at all.