Kershaw, Bumgarner, and the subject of dominance

I have had the opportunity to play baseball with some really talented players. In fact, at the time that this piece goes to press, one of my former long-time teammates is just one win away from leading my alma mater to a second  Suffolk County title in three years (shout out West Islip Varsity Baseball). This particular player has dominated all levels of competition at  the plate, but more impressively, on the mound. No stage was too big for him, not even the county championship game in 2014, his sophomore year and first year on varsity (when he went undefeated with a sub-2.00 ERA as well). If anyone asked any team or coach that ever had to prepare or play against this player, there would be one common thread, one repeated adjective used to describe him: “Dominant.”

Obviously, it is really, really hard to be called dominant on a day-in, day-out basis. Of course, that’s the way it is supposed to go in sports, especially in baseball and on the mound. An old, well-known adage goes “If it was easy, everyone would do it.” That’s exactly right. True dominance, it all of its consistent, persistent, and incredulous nature, is  to be saved for the kinds of ballplayers that make even the casual fan turn on a television to watch a game because, for pitchers, any start could be historic.

We are seeing that kind of dominance from several pitchers, I think, in Major League Baseball right now. Jake Arrieta in the last 365 days is 27-2 with an ERA of 1.36 and a WHIP of .810. Chris Sale won his first nine starts in 2016. Noah Syndergaard’s ERA is below 2.00 and is striking out over 11 batters per nine innings. All of these arms in the league, and then some, could mean we are, at this very moment, witnessing one of the Golden Ages of pitching.

None of the aforementioned pitchers, however, are the most dominant pitcher in the MLB in a whole, historical sense. Clayton Kershaw’s career right now is shaping up to be on the best in baseball history, and he is not even 30. Just this season alone, he leads the big leagues in ERA, innings pitched, walks per nine innings, strikeouts, WHIP, and complete games. And he’s a notoriously better second half pitcher (his ERA, winning percentage, WHIP, and hits allowed are all lower in the second half of the season).

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Photo: Flickr/Arturo Pardavila III

What encapsulates the kind of pitcher he’s been in his nine MLB seasons is this simple: Zero.

Yes, going into last night’s contest against the New York Mets, there was a stat column that had a goose egg for Kershaw. He had not been visited by his manager, Dave Roberts, or pitching coach, Rick Honeycutt, once in 2016. That ended last night when Roberts went out to chat during the later innings of last night’s game, but even still, the conversation was brief.

Kershaw is 121-57 in eight-plus big league years and is 28 years old. That means he is 179 wins away from the golden number 300 and, assuming he pitches until he is 40, has 12 seasons left. That math leaves him needing just a hair under 15 wins each year to be the 25th pitcher to reach 300, a hallmark of extraordinary, dominant pitching. In seasons where he has made at least 27 stars, Kershaw has only dipped under 15 wins twice, but has made up for both of them with two 21-win campaigns. He has the best chance of any active pitcher to reach 300 wins, which would all but ensure his place as one of the most dominant pitchers in MLB history.

If you compare him to another dominant Dodgers lefty, Sandy Koufax, through 250 career starts (which Kershaw surpassed just a couple of weeks ago), his ERA is half a run lower (2.41 to Koufax’s 2.96), has more strikeouts and less walks, and has given up 59 less homers than Koufax, although Koufax was only in the second year of his famous five-year stretch at the end of his career where he just completely bowled over hitters (for reference: Koufax’s highest season ERA in those five years was 2.54. His lowest? 1,73 in his final MLB season).

That’s dominance, right? Actually, the case could be made that Kershaw is not even in the conversation as the most dominant pitcher in baseball right now. And he still has not been mentioned yet.

This is the flip-side of the “dominance” debate. The term is so subjective that it can be tossed around on a whim without too much gravitas behind it. However, a guy that has a 2.14 ERA in 88 career postseason innings, is currently riding a 14-inning scoreless streak in October, has three World Series rings, an NLCS and World Series MVP, and came into a decisive Game Seven on two days of rest and casually tossed five scoreless innings in relief after throwing a complete-game shutout in Game Five to get the save and win the World Series, all before the age of 26? That has to be dominance, too.

The pitcher with all of that to show on his résumé is Madison Bumgarner. The San Francisco Giants lefty almost seems as if he does not care about the regular season (although a hurler with a 2.98 career ERA is no slouch). His chief concern is doing whatever it takes to will his team to victory in October. Bumgarner has been the focal point on two of the Giants’ three “Even Year Magic,” World Series-winning teams in 2010, 2012, and 2014. He does not have the regular season accolades, like the five-time All-Star, three-time Cy Young winning, one-time MVP winning Kershaw does, but Bumgarner succeeds when Kershaw utterly fails: October.

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Photo: Wikipedia

Kershaw’s playoff stats are downright ugly. He sports a 4.59 ERA and a WHIP of almost 1.20. He’s also given up eight homers in 13 postseason games, a pace far worse than his 101 homers allowed in 255 career regular season starts. Bumgarner’s WHIP, on the other hand, is under .890, and has pitched into the seventh inning or later in all but three playoff starts, while Kershaw has only sniffed the seventh five times in his playoff career.

If we continue with the Kershaw/Koufax comparison, then it is not even close as to which pitcher is (or was) more dominant. In eight postseason appearances, Koufax has an ERA of 0.95. Yes, 0.95. He gave up six earned runs in 57 playoff innings, won a pair of World Series MVPs, and three rings to boot. Kershaw? Well, that’s another zero in a stat column for him.

The argument that can be made is this: If a pitcher’s dominance also includes his ability to thrive in pressure situations, then how can one be the so-called “most dominant” if he falters when it matters most? If there was one game, a do-or-die, winner-take-all scenario, and a Clayton Kershaw is not the clear choice to get the ball, how can he be considered one of the all-around dominant forces on the hill in the MLB?

Now, the notion of naming a single pitcher as the most dominant pitcher on baseball, while attempted fairly often, is a notably impossible notion because at any given moment in the history of the game, there are a plethora of really, really good pitchers (see: Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, etc.). However, the simple fact that fans and media do attempt it means that it should be done in toto. That’s why an Arrieta, or a Sale, or a Syndergaard, or a Max Scherzer can be considered.

Like Kershaw’s over-the-top delivery and Bumgarner’s half-sidearm, gunslinger motion, there are a million different approaches to answer the subjective nature of “dominance” in baseball. And like the four-tenths of a second that their fastballs are suspended in the air between the mound and home plate, the answer to this question may forever hang in limbo.

 

Syracuse: The Least Endearing Cinderella

Four teams in NCAA history have made the Final Four as a double-digit seed: LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006, VCU in 2011, and Syracuse this year. The ‘Cuse is in the midst of a run that literally no one predicted; there was a more than good chance that they would even make the tournament before Selection Sunday.

They eked by as a 10 seed and blew by Dayton and Middle Tennessee State, straight into a matchup with the talented Gonzaga Bulldogs. Freshman Tyler Lydon blocked a jumper with two seconds left to seal a 63-60 victory and conjure images of Hakeem Warrick’s championship-winning block in 2003. They then staged a 29-8 run in the final ten minutes to come all the way back to a 68-62 victory against top-seeded Virginia and secured a trip to the Final Four, the only team not seeded first or second to get there this year.

This scrappy Syracuse team has effectively become the team to root for this coming weekend as they face ACC compatriot North Carolina for a berth in the National Championship. The fact that the program has been punished for various infractions over the past decade this season is not lost on the minds of the public, either. The team self-imposed a postseason ban last year, lost twelve scholarships over the next four years, starting this year, and Head Coach Jim Boeheim was suspended for nine games earlier in the year, which is partly to blame for his team’s downswing this season. America’s motto for the Final Four should be “All for one, and one for Orange!”

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I’m definitely going to root for Syracuse, no doubt about it, but not because they’re the darlings of the dance. They’ve impressed me all season long, even in defeat (shout out: St. John’s University for taking them down this winter). Besides that, my bracket is busted anyway, especially after Michigan State wet the bed against MTSU, so why not root for competitive games?

The one thing that Syracuse is not, to me, is shocking. We need to remember that this is the same Syracuse team, coached by the same Jim Boeheim, that has been to 32 NCAA tournaments during his reign and dominated the BIG EAST for almost 40 years before switching to the ACC three years ago.

On the court, it’s nearly impossible to bet against Boeheim’s patented 2-3 zone, which he has perfected over the course of his lifetime at the helm. This season, with Boeheim absent from the sideline for about a quarter of his team’s games, the Orange still ranked in the top 25 in the country in scoring defense. They allow their opponents to shoot the ball at just under 41 percent, and just under 31 percent from three, absurdly low numbers even for a team that doesn’t have one nationally recognized talent (yet-keep an eye on Richardson).

It’s a foregone conclusion that a Syracuse team will, at the very least, play defense, and that’s what wins championships: 18 of the last 20 national champions had a defense that held opponents to either under 44% shooting or under 65 points per game (note: this information is not available for the 2000-2001 Duke Blue Devils, who ranked 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency). That takes a great amount of the magic out of their ongoing Final Four run.

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The only way anyone could be shocked by a Syracuse tournament run is if they think that the roster was that depleted by the infractions. Let’s face it, though. Syracuse is a national powerhouse, and they’ll still find a way to get the talent that they need. Even still, most of their major contributors are graduate students and seniors, like Michael Gbinije, who averaged nearly 18 points per game, and Trevor Cooney, who plays 36 minutes per game.

The Orange were still able to land four-star recruit Malachi Richardson, who scored 23 points and led the second-half comeback against Virginia, and Lydon, who has had at least five blocks in three of the four NCAA tournament games he’s played in so far. Syracuse, despite the scholarship loss, has recruited and will continue to recruit some the best talent in the Northeast, and some of the best in the country.

It comes as little surprise that Syracuse came out of the Midwest after Michigan State embarrassed themselves against MTSU, either. The top four seeds in that region that survived the first round- Virginia, Utah, Iowa State, and Butler- have made a combined 81 appearances in the NCAA tournament. That sound pretty good, but Syracuse itself has made 39 appearances in the Big Dance in school history, far better than the pace set forth by the other three schools. The Midwest Region had one of the weaker number one seeds (UVA), but perhaps the strongest number two seed (MSU), with whom Syracuse would’ve had a date with in the second round. Once Middle Tennessee miraculously took care of business, Syracuse’s odds for victory increased.

For the mainstream media, the Syracuse “cinderella” run is a great story. Lyon, Richardson, Gbinije, and the rest of their cast of characters will get more than enough screen time on ESPN and FS1. However, the glass slipper never has, doesn’t currently, and never will, fit the program run by Boeheim because of the culture they’ve been able to create.